Metaruptions: How AI and Systemic Shifts Are Redefining Leadership

Jul 15
5 min read

Updated: Jul 16

Roger Spitz

Roger Spitz leads the Disruptive Futures Institute in San Francisco. A former investment banker turned futurist, he is now one of Silicon Valley’s most influential strategic thinkers. As an advisor to the World Economic Forum’s Global Foresight Network, he explores how AI, climate change, and emerging technologies are reshaping our world—and how we can prepare for what’s ahead.

His latest book, Disrupt with Impact, won the 2024 Foreword Indies Book of the Year Award (Business & Economics) and the Harvey Chute Best Book Award.

I asked him a few questions about the book and how to navigate the global shifts we face today.

The AI Revolution: Shaping Our Future

🎤 What inspired your deep interest in AI after years in tech and investment?

My career path is somewhat unique, from M&A to becoming a futurist. I was responsible for technology M&A at a major investment bank, and now I'm working as a venture capital partner, with a strategic foresight practice. This journey has given me the opportunity to work with CEOs, founders, and policymakers worldwide.

Through these experiences, one thing has become clear: AI is not just another trend or technological fad. While many people get caught up in Silicon Valley's hype, I focus on the fundamental changes beneath the surface, the next order implications, and how seemingly unrelated things might connect.

AI has the power to fundamentally transform our society, much like electricity or the internet did. What's particularly important is how AI is changing our decision-making processes themselves. AI is now generating decision outcomes that were previously only possible for humans.

These changes raise existential questions for us.

What should be the role of humans so that we remain relevant in the 21st century?

How can we ensure our free will and choices?

This is what led me to propose a new concept I call “techistentialism.”

Why Past Success Won’t Guide the Future

🎤 What motivated you to write Disrupt with Impact?

The deeper I researched the nature of the world, the clearer one fact became: our systems are far more vulnerable than we think. What's concerning is that while everything in the world is constantly changing, our organizational structures and decision-making methods remain stuck in the past.

Many people continue to operate as if the world is predictable and controllable, like a train running on fixed rails. But reality is completely different. This misconception causes us to miss many opportunities, and the costs keep mounting from relying on the wrong assumptions.

My book addresses practical solutions to these complex problems. Specifically, it presents concrete strategies for responding to major changes in areas such as AI, sustainability, geopolitical shifts, and cybersecurity.

The key is not to view the future as a fixed image. We need to keep multiple possibilities open and prepare for various scenarios, much like a navigator prepares for different weather conditions.

Building resilience to shocks and anticipatory thinking for how the drivers of change interact into unpredictable outcomes.

Navigating a New World: Adapting to Unpredictability

🎤 Why is now the right time to release your book?

In today's news, we frequently hear terms like 'historic,' 'unprecedented,' and 'first time ever.' Perhaps the 'unprecedented' has become our new normal. This indicates just how rapidly change is accelerating.

In this era, past experience and knowledge alone are insufficient. I realized we need a new compass to navigate through constantly changing uncertainties.

The New Constants in a Shifting Landscape

🎤 Which current changes are the most significant and why?

Here's an interesting fact: while many experts try to analyze and predict trends, these patterns are actually like a car's rearview mirror – they only show what's already passed.

In today's complex world, simple trend analysis can be dangerous. At our Disruptive Futures Institute, we call these systemic disruptions 'metaruptions.' This refers to fundamental changes where various systems interact, cascade and influence each other in chain reactions.

What's critical is how difficult it is to recognize the significance of these changes at first.

Complexity is much like the Amazon rainforest—species go extinct, weather patterns shift suddenly, and everything is affected by countless interactions that are constantly in motion. That's why imagination becomes more important than analysis.

Deciphering the Unchanging Truths in Uncertain Times

🎤 What enduring elements remain amidst today’s volatility?

First, the world is becoming increasingly unpredictable. We call this 'UN-VICE'—Unknown, Volatile, Intersecting, Complex, and Exponential. Unlike traditional advice, systemic disruption has devalued "ad-vice" because the future is truly unknown.

This shift shows that in a world where everything is volatile and interconnected, advice based on past experiences alone often falls short. What’s needed is a deeper understanding of how unpredictable factors interact and evolve.

Second, sustainability is now central to all decision-making—just as digital transformation once was.

Third, technology is accelerating, especially with AI, robotics, healthcare, and climate tech converging, giving rise to new fields like alternative protein and CRISPR.

Fourth, data and AI are climbing the decision-making value chain.

Fifth, the world is becoming more decentralized, weakening traditional structures and enabling emergent networks.

Building Resilience: Preparing for the AI Era

🎤 How should organizations future-proof themselves in an AI-driven world?

The most important thing is organizational resilience. Like an immune system, organizations must be able to adapt and survive whatever changes come their way.

Here are three core strategies I suggest:

Build adaptive leadership systems.
Not top-down command structures, but leadership that aligns diverse stakeholders and makes dynamic, informed decisions.
Develop the ability to detect 'weak signals.'
Big shifts often begin as subtle patterns. For instance, before ChatGPT’s rise, early signals were already visible in breakthroughs across NLP and computer vision.
Foster a culture of experimentation and constant learning.
Perfect planning is no longer realistic. Instead, start small, learn fast, and evolve continuously.

🎤 What role does foresight play when dealing with emerging technologies like AI?

Technology holds a dual nature—vast opportunity and serious risk. That’s why organizations need to build what I call ‘technology foresight.’

It unfolds in three stages:

Anticipation: Evaluate potential impact before adoption.
Monitoring: Track real-time consequences post-implementation.
Response: React quickly and effectively to mitigate emerging risks.

The key point is this: while we can't predict the future, we can develop our ability to anticipate potential changes.

Disruption’s impact hinges on three factors: your perspective, your preparedness, and the effectiveness of your timely response. It's like a martial artist who can't know exactly what move their opponent will make next but prepares to counter any attack.

A Call to Shape Our Technological Destiny

As the interview concluded, he added,

"We're standing at a historic turning point. The changes ahead (including from technology) are far more fundamental than we imagine.

However, this shouldn't be a source of fear. Instead, we should take this as an opportunity to seriously consider what kind of future we want to create and what our role as humans should be in that future."